TJ Stuff: Weathering the Storm
Ryan Weathers, Will Warren
Welcome to “TJ Stuff”, a series which aims to highlight any intriguing MLB players and performances.
Ryan Weathers - MIA
Ryan Weathers made a lot of noise this Spring with improved velocity and shapes on all his offerings along with excellent results. The hype surrounding him quickly faded after a forearm strain kept him out for the entirety of April, but gradually ramped back up as he started his rehab. Now fully back, Weathers looks primed for a breakout season with a revamped arsenal and jaw dropping stuff.
Weathers’ fastball is his most improved pitch thanks to a +1.5 MPH increase in velocity. It now sits 96-98 MPH, making it one of the hardest throwing south-paws in the league. His fastball is also exhibiting more ride this season with an additional 1.5” of iVB. This additional vertical break gives the pitch a lot more life and causes it to drop less than expected, helping it play well when located up in the zone. It is only just 1 start, but the consistency of his fastball was impressive. It held its improved shape and he had filled the zone with the offering against both RHH and LHH.
Weathers’ changeup is exhibiting better characteristics as well. Its velocity has remained in the mid 80s, giving it an ideal differential from his fastball. Additionally, he has shown a much better feel for the pitch. He has kept its iVB near 0” making its vertical separation from is fastball to be over 15”. The compounding effects of his improved changeup shape and higher riding fastball has elevated it to a plus offering.
Weathers is also showcasing a revamped slider (cutter?) that is a different variation from last season. He is throwing this variant slightly harder with more ride and less cutting action. It does not grade out well according to pitch models, but I expect it to be an early count offering that he can throw for strikes
Overall, Weather’s improved velocity and more refined shapes give him a strong foundation to break out this season. His first start was impressive and it looks like his forearm issues are in the rearview mirror.
Will Warren - NYY
Will Warren’s 3.24 FIP and high strikeout totals in his recent outings paint the picture of a much better pitcher than his 4.61 ERA would suggest. When we dig deeper into his arsenal, it is not surprising to see how Warren is able to maintain a great 27.9 K%. Each of his pitches have strong characteristics that carry their effectiveness and allow him to punch guys out.
Warren is seeing much better results against LHH this season after there were concerns his arsenal would struggle against them. His fastball lives in the strike zone. No matter the count, Warren is comfortable challenging LHH, and wins most of the time. His low 3/4 slot pairs well with its above average ride to help generate plenty of in zone-whiffs.
The largest factor influencing his success against lefties is his changeup. Similar to Weathers, it is exhibiting more depth which pairs well with the improved ride on his fastball. Another driving factor is how well he has commanded it this season. He paints the offering low and away while ahead in the count to generate chases.
Warren’s bread and butter pitch is his massive sweeping slider that averages 20” of glove-side movement. You typically don’t see pitchers utilize these massive sweeping breaking balls against opposite handed hitters, but Warren tosses that out the window with +20% usage against LHH. However, he would likely benefit from reducing its usage. LHH have hit the pitch hard and are not fooled by its movement. My theory is that it is too telegraphed. Warren’s arsenal has a massive void in its movement plot as his pitches either have a lot of arm-side or glove-side movement, with nothing in between. Bringing back the cutter he threw last season could help bridge everything together and give him a different look rather than his extreme East-West approach.
Warren is exhibiting improved stuff this season with better command of his secondaries. He has struggled to limit hard contact, which is driven by his inability to generate chases with his most used offerings. The strikeout rate is very encouraging, but figuring out a way to limit damage would help unlock his potential.
Follow me on Twitter: @TJStats
Follow me on BlueSky: @tjstats.ca
Consider Supporting me on Patreon: TJStats