TJ Stuff: Everybody Loves Kris
Kris Bubic, Cristopher Sánchez, Jordan Hicks, Jackson Jobe
Welcome to “TJ Stuff”, a series which aims to highlight any intriguing MLB players and performances.
Kris Bubic
Once I heard that Kris Bubic was moving back into the rotation, I knew that he was going to be a name to watch this season. I named him my breakout candidate for the Royals this season and his 2025 debut exhibited why!
I was enamoured by Kris Bubic returning to the rotation thanks to his elite fastball metrics. Although the pitch sits in the low-to-mid 90s, he is able to generate well above average iVB for his slot. This action causes the baseball to have a flatter approach (VAA) on its way to the plate. Batters struggle against these flat fastballs because they expect them to drop more than they actually do. Bubic leveraged his command and fastball’s characteristics to return an elite 33.8 Z-Whiff% on the offering last season. In yesterday’s start, Bubic lowered his slot ~2” while increasing his fastball iVB ~1”. These changes caused the offering to become even flatter (-4.7° to -4.3° VAA) and should make it a more effective in-zone whiff generator. He filled the zone with his 4-Seam, but Brewers batters couldn’t keep up with it as he returned a sparkling 44.0 Whiff% on pitch.
Bubic was also very effective at inducing weak contact last season. The same story was repeated yesterday as he allowed just 1 Hard Hit (a groundball) across 6 innings. As for Bubic’s usage, the most notable observation was an overall increase in 4-Seam usage. This increase made sense as he was slicing through batters with the offering throughout the day. Bubic’s changeup is also a fantastic pitch, yet it wasn’t at its best.
Bubic had a dominant 2025 debut and the changes he has made over the winter make me confident that he can have a breakout season.
Cristopher Sánchez
Cristopher Sánchez was excellent in 2024, posting 4.7 fWAR across 181.1 IP on the heels of his elite sinker and changeup combo. He entered 2025 on a mission to build off last year’s success, and he was not messing around.
Over the winter, Sánchez added +2 MPH to his entire arsenal to now sit at 96-97 MPH on his sinker. This helped bump his tjStuff+ grades up ~2 across the board and makes him one of the hardest throwing starters in MLB. This increase in stuff helps elevate Sánchez’s ceiling and transform him into more of a strikeout arm. He showed that off yesterday as he registered 7 K and generated a great 30.0 Whiff% in conjunction with an elite 39.3 Chase%.
Sánchez has all the same tools that made him elite last season and he simply added more power to his arsenal. These changes make me confident that he will return yet another fantastic campaign.
Jordan Hicks
Jordan Hicks came out firing in his 2025 debut. He averaged +3 MPH on his fastballs and topped out at 100 MPH after never reaching that mark in 2024. He paired this elite velocity with an incredible feel for locating his pitches as Astros batters couldn’t generate any hard contact. It was an efficient outing for Hicks as he flew through 6.0 IP on just 72 pitches, so we weren’t able to see how he sustained his velocity over a typical 90+ pitch outing. Nonetheless, this version of Hicks feels like the one we were expecting when it was announced he was signed as a starter for the Giants. His heavy sinker approach will likely keep the whiffs and strikeouts low, but his ability to induce weak contact makes him a very intriguing arm.
Jackson Jobe
Jackson Jobe made his first career start in MLB and his stuff was advertised and better than in 2024. His fastball was about half a tick harder with +2” iVB, pushing its tjStuff+ grade from 108 to 117. He also introduced two new pitches in his curveball and sinker. Both pitches look like early count options against RHH. Against LHH, he leans heavily on his 4-Seam while weaving in his cutter and changeup. His cutter is exhibiting more 2-plane movement this season with ~2” more drop and sweep which being about a tick slower. It was effective at generating whiffs yesterday and tjStuff+ graded it out at 116; an elite score. His changeup also looks improved with an extra tick of velocity and more arm side run.
Overall, Jobe’s stuff looked excellent, but he faltered due to his inability to pound the zone with his fastball. His lack of whiffs on his fastball early on in 2025 have been perplexing; it has characteristics similar to the best in MLB. I expect Jobe to iron out his command as the season progresses and let his stuff speak for himself. He is the #1 pitching prospect for a reason!
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