TJ Stuff: Chasing Dollars
Chase Dollander, Edward Cabrera
Welcome to “TJ Stuff”, a series which aims to highlight any intriguing MLB players and performances.
Quink Hits
Bryan Woo’s fastball is up +1 MPH while maintaining its same shape. The offering was already elite and this harder version is even better. I am hoping he can refine his secondaries so he doesn’t have to rely on 70% fastballs.
Corbin Burnes continues to not throw his sweeper. His Cutter usage is up a ton in the early going and it is ~1.5 MPH slower with less iVB. tjStuff+ has the same grade as last season (111), but I think it should be a tad lower.
Jordan Hicks’ velocity is still up +3 MPH which has significantly bumped up his tjStuff+. His splitter usage was down yesterday despite facing a handful of LHH.
Kris Bubic continued his strong start as his changeup looked fantastic. It is exhibiting ~5 less iVB this season and its tjStuff+ grade jumped from 99 to 104. He is pitching deep into games (95 and 99 pitches in each start) and his command has been on point.
Chase Dollander
Chase Dollander made his MLB debut yesterday! It’s wasn’t the prettiest outing, but we finally got a chance to see how his stuff plays at Coors after his consistently put up gaudy pitch metrics throughout his amateur and pro career. I won’t go as far as saying the extreme killed his fastball, but its shape was heavily diminished compared to what it is typically. It usually has above average ride for his slot, but that was not the case yesterday as his average iVB dropped ~2” inches. As it was hypothesized, Dollander’s fastball took a big hit at his new home park. On the positive side, his fastball sits in the upper 90s and he has a good feel for locating it in the zone. I expect the offering to grade out tremendously on the road and merely be an average offering in Coors.
We saw a similar contraction of his movement with his other pitches as his changeup and curveball each moved towards the center of the pitch plot. On the bright side, his cutter (slider) maintained its excellent characteristics while hovering around 90 MPH. I would not be surprised if he greatly increased its usage in his next home outing to counteract his depressed stuff elsewhere.
Edward Cabrera
Edward Cabrera is working his way back from a blister that landed him on the IL to start the season and his rehab starts have been encouraging.
A big development for Cabrera is the departure of his 4-Seamer from his arsenal. Last season it was his primary fastball which he threw ~30% of the time and returned a putrid -9 Run Value. In his starts thus far, he has only tossed a handful as he has greatly altered his pitch usage. Against RHH, Cabrera has opted to us his sinker as his primary fastball while also dialing back on his changeup. Against LHH, his gyro slider usage has skyrocketed to ~20% after being his least used offering last season. His nutty changeup was back to its usual self, sitting 93-95 MPH with a good blend of run and depth. Another change Cabrera made was to his curveball. The offering has kept its mid 80s velocity, but is exhibiting more drop to give it a distinct two-plane profile. tjStuff+ likes the adjustment, assigning a marginal increase from 106 to 108.
Inconsistencies have plagued Cabrera throughout his MLB career and he is making meaningful changes to his usage and pitch shapes that could spark a breakout. Once he is back from the IL, keep an eye on him!
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