Spring Scouting: Prospect Parade 2
Shane Smith, Chase Dollander, Tekoah Roby
Welcome to “Spring Scouting”, a series which aims to highlight any intriguing Spring Training players or storylines. This article will cover 3 intriguing pitching prospects and their performance this Spring.
Shane Smith
Shane Smith was drafted 1st overall in the 2024 Rule 5 draft so his spot on the White Sox Opening Day Roster is essentially guaranteed, especially after his strong Spring thus far. When Smith was selected, I was under the impression that he would be utilized as a reliver given his shallow arsenal, but this may not be the case.
This Spring his pitch mix has evolved in many facets, with the most notable changes coming in the form of a lower arm slot and a substantial increase in velocity. Smith’s lower arm slot has greatly impacted the shape of his pitches. His fastball has transformed from a cutter-like shape to a more cut-ride form that gets a minimal amount of arm-side action with more iVB. On top of the change in shape, Smith is averaging +3 MPH on his fastball. This increase is substantial and one of the largest by any pitcher this Spring. This jump in velocity can be seen through his breaking balls. His slider is getting a bit more ride and less sweeping action while being +2 MPH faster. A similar story can be seen with his curveball as it has deviated from its 2-Plane action to a more 12-6 drop.
The biggest development for Smith this Spring has been his changeup. It’s newer pitch that caught my eye thanks to its standout 107 tjStuff+. The offering sits in the low 90s with a considerable amount of run and depth, which helps it play very well off his fastball. It’s clear that the changeup has flashed incredible potential but Smith has struggled to locate it.
Shane Smith is all but guaranteed to have a spot on the White Sox 26-Man roster and multiple rotation spots are for the taking. Given his intriguing arsenal and strong results, I think he can secure one.
Chase Dollander
I ranked Chase Dollander as the #4 Pitching Prospect in baseball, and although his Spring has been marred with poor results, I am confident that he can develop into All-Star starter. I won’t read too much into his poor performance as he is using the MLB ball for the first time in his pro career and facing higher level hitters; an adjustment period is expected.
His fastball is as advertised. Its flat approach plays very well at the top of the zone and makes the offering slip under bats. It sits in the high 90s and exhibits plus characteristics. His go-to secondary is his high 70s two-plane curveball that mirrors his fastball.
The pitch I want to highlight is his slider/cutter. This Spring it is getting more sweep and drop compared to last season which has resulted in 109 tjStuff+ and a ton of whiffs. The pitch gives him a true weapon against RHH that fools batters around the zone. His changeup continues to be his least used offering, but its velocity and shape deviation from his fastball is very encouraging.
I wouldn’t worry about Dollander’s lack of strikes this Spring. His delivery is silky smooth which bodes well for improvements to his command. His arsenal paints the picture of a future ace with his biggest challenge coming in the form of his future home park of Coors field.
Tekoah Roby
Tekoah Roby has stood out this Spring for all the right reasons. He is pounding the zone with all his pitches and has remained effective due to his innate ability to generate whiffs. His fastball is on another level as he throwing it about a tick harder with nearly +3” of iVB. This has helped the pitch flatten out and elevated the offering to plus status.
In my opinion, his changeup has been his most intriguing pitch. Compared to last year, it is getting less depth but significantly more run. This has transformed the pitch into an absolute nightmare for LHH.
Here is an example of a changeup with 18” of horizontal break that completely fooled Cooper Hummel (h/t Kareem for the video)
Roby hasn’t been a beacon of health throughout his career as he only pitched 96.2 IP in the last 2 seasons. I expect the Cardinals to monitor his workload this season, but it finally looks like we are seeing how brilliant a healthy Roby can be.
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