Introduction
My inaugural breakout picks for each team garnered a lot of buzz and help me score a guest appearance on FanGraph’s “Effectively Wild” Podcast. With the 2025 season wrapped up, I wanted to do a retrospective on how I fared with his selections, both good and bad. This article will go through each of my picks and indicate if they were “Hits” or “Misses” while also highlighting each team’s “actual breakout” player where applicable.
Before we start, here is a reminder of the limitations I put into place when making my selections:
His main 2 limitations are:
No Current Top 100 Prospects (MLB Pipeline)
No Players with a 2+ fWAR Season (Fangraphs)
At most 2:1 Pitcher to Batter Ratio
I ranked my picks under 4 categories:
Hit: These players performed like MLB regulars
Partial Hit: These players produced enough to avoid being a miss, but it was not a full breakout
Miss: These players did not produce much, if any value, due to their performance
Mulligan: These players missed most, if not all, of the season with an injury
AL East
Baltimore Orioles
Brandon Young - RHP
Brandon Young enjoyed a productive 2024 MiLB season where he looked poised to be a backend rotation piece for Baltimore within a year. While he had some chances in MLB this season, he struggled to mitigate damage and generate strikeouts before ultimately ending his season on the IL with a hamstring injury.
Verdict: Miss
Actual Breakout: Dean Kremer
Boston Red Sox
Richard Fitts - RHP
Richard Fitts struggling this season was a tough watch. After a very encouraging 2024 MiLB season and exhilarating Spring Training Fitts was poised to be a mainstay in the Red Sox rotation throughout 2025. He got off to a strong start before a pectoral injury put him on the shelf and ultimately forced him into a relief role when he was not in Boston. He is one of the few names I am considering running back next year for my 2026 breakout picks.
Verdict: Miss
Actual Breakout: Carlos Narváez
New York Yankees
Clayton Beeter - RHP
Well, this is awkward. Clayton Beeter pitched 3.2 inning for the Yankees before getting shipped off to the Nationals at the deadline. His results with Washington have looked solid with a sub 3.00 ERA and FIP backed by an elite K%. Despite the encouraging peripherals, Beeter’s season cannot be classified as a breakout. Maybe he puts it all together next season.
Verdict: Miss
Actual Breakout: Ben Rice
Tampa Bay Rays
Jonathan Aranda - 1B/DH
Jonathan Aranda was a popular breakout pick following his strong underlying numbers and hot September in 2024. He carried that momentum into this season as he batted over .300 and posted a 146 wRC+. He looks to be the future 1B for the Rays.
Verdict: Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Will Wagner - 2B/DH
Will Wagner was a popular breakout pick for the Blue Jays entering the 2025 season. He performed well throughout his pro career and finally had a shot to play every day in the Majors. His solid hit tool and eye could not supplement his underwhelming power and he was quickly phased out of the Blue Jays lineup and eventually shipped to San Diego.
Verdict: Miss
Actual Breakout: Addison Barger
AL Central
Chicago White Sox
Chase Meidroth - 3B
Cool story: I actually was the first person to publicly break the news of Chase Meidroth’s call up! While my concerns regarding his lack of power limited his offensive production, he made up for it somewhat with strong defense up the middle. I won’t call this a full win, but he more than proved that he can stick in the Majors.
Verdict: Partial Hit
Actual Breakout: Shane Smith
Cleveland Guardians
Joey Cantillo - LHP
While it took until the 2nd half for Joey Cantillo to break his way into the Guardians rotation, he ended the year with a solid 3.21 ERA and 3.56 FIP across 95.1 Innings. His changeup led the way with an impressive 49.4 Whiff%.
Verdict: Hit
Detroit Tigers
Dillon Dingler - C
Dillon Dingler, apart from having an 80 Grade name, ranked amongst the most valuable catchers in baseball. His offensive production floated above average thanks to strong batter ball quality and he bolstered his profile with elite defense. a +4.0 fWAR season from a non-top 100 prospect and projected backup catcher is a massive win for Detroit.
Verdict: Hit
Kansas City Royals
Kris Bubic - LHP
I put all my eggs in the “Kris Bubic” basket before the season and I am proud to say that was excellent decision. Before his season was cut short due to a left rotator cuff strain, Bubic was garnering AL Cy Young recognition with an excellent 2.55 ERA and 2.90 FIP. It was a full-fledged breakout!
Verdict: Hit
Minnesota Twins
David Festa - RHP
David Festa ended his 2024 season on high-note and looked to carry that momentum into this year. After an eye-opening Spring which saw him introduce a new sinker, Festa looked poised to be a key part of the Twins rotation, but was squeezed off their opening day roster due to their SP depth. Festa never really got in a grove in Minnesota and eventually ended his year on the IL with a shoulder injury.
Verdict: Miss
Actual Breakout: Kody Clemens
AL West
Athletics
Tyler Soderstrom - 1B
Tyler Soderstrom was a more popular breakout pick entering the season and he delivered! He launched 25 HR and posted a 126 w5C+ while playing every day for the Athletics. He was one of the most productive bats in the AL, and is still just 23 years old.
Verdict: Hit
Houston Astros
Forrest Whitley - RHP
If we went off Forrest Whitley’s MiLB stats, he would have easily cleared the breakout threshold, but unfortunately, he couldn’t get anything going in the Majors before he was claimed by Tampa Bay off waivers. He showed some promise in AAA as a starter, but we will have to wait a bit longer for a substantial MLB stint.
Verdict: Miss
Actual Breakout: Jake Meyers
Los Angeles Angels
José Soriano - RHP
José Soriano returned a successful season for the Angels with a 4.26 ERA and 3.73 FIP across 169.0 innings. It was a formidable backend of the rotation season and he flashed some very intriguing upside on the heels of his high 90s slider and wipeout curveball.
Verdict: Hit
Seattle Mariners
Gregory Santos - RHP
Gregory Santos only pitched 7 innings this year, before suffering a season ending knee injury. He did not look poised for a breakout in those 7 innings as he issued 10 BB with striking out a single batter. I’ll take a L on this call.
Verdict: Miss
Actual Breakout: Dominic Canzone
Texas Rangers
Jack Leiter - RHP
Jack Leiter wrapped up his rookie season with a strong 3.86 ERA and decent 4.16 FIP across 151.2 Innings. There were some speed bumps along the way, especially with his lack of Ks, but this is a picture-perfect definition of a breakout. He has the tools to take another leap in 2026.
Verdict: Hit
NL East
Atlanta Braves
Nacho Alvarez Jr. - SS
Nacho Alvarez Jr. could not supplant Nick Allen from the SS role in Atlanta and he struggled to get anything going offensively once he was eventually promoted. He flashed a decent glove at 2B, but it was not enough to make up for his poor production at the plate.
Verdict: Miss
Actual Breakout: Hurston Waldrep
Miami Marlins
Griffin Conine - 1B/DH
Griffin Conine suffered an injury in April that essentially wiped out his 2025 season. In the games he did play though he looked like a major league slugger and should be a staple in the Marlins lineup in 2026.
Verdict: Mulligan (Injury)
Actual Breakout: Kyle Stowers
New York Mets
Clay Holmes - RHP
Clay Holmes made his return to the rotation in style with a 3.53 ERA in 165.2 innings, nearly 100 IP more than his previous career high. Fatigue looked to set in in the 2nd half, but he provided exactly what the Mets required him to: backend starter production volume and production. This is was a major win for New York.
Verdict: Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Moisés Chace - RHP
Moisés Chace never got the call to MLB and underwent Tommy John Surgery in May. The first time we see Chace might be in a bullpen role for the Phillies next season.
Verdict: Mulligan (Injury)
Actual Breakout: Edmundo Sosa
Washington Nationals
DJ Herz - LHP
DJ Herz missed the entire 2025 season following Tommy John Surgery. All this means is that he is fair game for my 2026 Nationals Breakout Pick!
Verdict: Mulligan (Injury)
Actual Breakout: Brad Lord
NL Central
Chicago Cubs
Brandon Birdsell - RHP
Brandon Birdsell was poised to make his Cubs debut this season thanks to his strong breaking balls and plus command. Unfortunately, a myriad of injuries caused him to miss a lot of time to start the season and during his buildup he suffered an elbow injury that ended his year.
Verdict: Mulligan (Injury)
Actual Breakout: Brad Keller
Cincinnati Reds
Graham Ashcraft - RHP
Graham Ashcraft’s transition to the bullpen was a successful one as he fired off 65.1 IP with 3.99 ERA and 2.72 FIP. He limited home runs at an elite level; however, he fell into some trouble with an inflated BABIP. All his peripherals indicate he pitched much better than his ERA would indicate, and that makes me confident with labelling him as a partial win.
Verdict: Partial Win
Actual Breakout: Andrew Abbott
Milwaukee Brewers
Tyler Black - 3B/DH
Tyler Black produced another effective MiLB season where he posted a 117 wRC+ over 71 games, but it wasn’t enough for the Brewers to grant him more than a handful of PA in MLB. Maybe next season will be more fruitful for Black.
Verdict: Miss
Actual Breakout: Sal Frelick
Pittsburgh Pirates
Nick Yorke - 2B/LF/RF
After the Pirates acquired Nick Yoke at the 2024 trade deadline, it looked like he would be a key part of their lineup moving forward. Even with Pittsburgh’s putrid offense, Yorke spent most of the 2025 season in AAA and didn’t get the call until rosters expanded in September. He did not perform well in the Majors with a wRC+ well below average.
Verdict: Miss
Actual Breakout: Braxton Ashcraft
St. Louis Cardinals
Kyle Leahy - RHP
Kyle Leahy’s inclusion to my breakout list was twofold: 1) He wields a deep arsenal, including some wicked breaking balls; and 2) I thought the Cardinals would test him out as a starter. While the latter hasn’t happened yet (maybe in 2026), the former helped him wrap up the season as the Cardinals best reliever.
Verdict: Hit
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
Pavin Smith - 1B/DH
Pavin Smith excelled in a strong-side platoon role with the Diamondbacks as he posted a 122 wRC+ across 288 PA before a quad injury cut his season short. He did exactly as he was expected to and I feel like that deserves some credit.
Verdict: Partial Hit
Actual Breakout: Geraldo Perdomo
Colorado Rockies
Angel Chivilli - RHP
I was so excited for Angel Chivilli this season. In 2024, he had multiple elite whiffs generating secondaries in his changeup and slider that made it seem like he could navigate the rough environment of Coors. Those same whiff rates held this season as each secondary offering ran a +40.0 Whiff%. Unfortunately, his fastball was one of the worst pitches in baseball, and accounted for most of his damage against.
Verdict: Miss
Actual Breakout: Hunter Goodman
Los Angeles Dodgers
Ben Casparius - RHP
Ben Casparius came out of the gate charging to start the season with his electric arsenal leading the way. He was utilized out of the bullpen, both in short spurts and longer outing, and in a starting role. Slipping performance and limited space pushed him to the minors. Overall, he posted a 4.64 ERA with a much nicer 3.58 FIP, indicating that luck was not always on his side.
Verdict: Partial Hit
Actual Breakout: Andy Pages
San Diego Padres
Stephen Kolek - RHP
Stephen Kolek was my Padres pick, but it wasn’t until his trade to the Royals where he cemented his breakout status as a win, He wrapped up the season with a 3.51 ERA and 3.82 FIP across 112.2 IP and looks like he can stick around Kansas City’s rotation moving forward.
Verdict: Hit
San Francisco Giants
Jerar Encarnacion - RF/DH
Jerar Encarnacion was a fun pick thanks to his immense raw power and swing happy approach. Unfortunately, he missed all of April with an injury and didn’t make his way back to San Fran until June. In his short stint in the Majors this season he struggled mightily with strike outs and walked just 1 time.
Verdict: Miss
Actual Breakout: Landen Roupp
Conclusion
Let’s tally up my results:
10 Breakouts
4 Partial Breakouts
12 Misses
4 Injuries
My goal for this project was to highlight some lesser-known players that have the talent to stick in the Majors. Not considering the players that had their season wiped due to injuries, I had a hit rate ~50%! Given the limitations that I put into place, I would say this was a great result.
Now that I have set a bar for myself, I will look toward the 2026 MLB season and try to find the next group of breakout stars!
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Thanks for sharing. Interesting read. For me personally I don't think Jose Soriano qualifies as a breakout full success as his ERA and WHIP were substantially worse than in 2024. WHIP of 1.40 quite frankly is poor (47th out of 52 qualifiers). Mainly he provided more bulk going from 20 to 31 GS. Jo Adell was the big Angels breakout.