Bryce Miller is a Scientist

The Scientific Method of Becoming an Ace

Oct 22, 2024

Introduction

Pitching is a science. Experimentation is an effective training strategy, which is employed by some of the best pitchers in baseball. Pitchers that have the willingness to adapt to the current MLB landscape can continuously stay one step ahead of the competition. Whether it be tinkering pitches or adding new pitches, any advantage a pitcher can gain on a batter is a benefit.

One pitcher that knows this all too well in Bryce Miller of the Seattle Mariners. He was tenacious in his training efforts, and was not afraid to change things up. The developments he made between the 2023 and 2024 season helped him evolve into a dynamic pitcher, and he hasn’t stopped experimenting.

Adjustments Galore

Miller made his MLB debut in 2023 after he made the leap from AA to support the ailing Seattle rotation. He started his career with a bang, tossing 5 consecutive quality starts while being effective at limiting hits. He employed a fastball heavy approach, tossing his 4-Seam ~70% of the time, much greater than average. The approach remained effective until it did not.

Over time, teams began to adjust against Miller and his fastball. It wasn’t long before batters punished Miller’s approach. After not allowing a home run in his first 5 starts, Miller proceeded to allow 18 in his next 20 starts. One of Miller’s biggest struggles in 2023 was against LHH. He posted a dismal 5.46 FIP in 255 PA, in large part due to the shallowness of his arsenal and the lack of a refined off-speed pitch. Teams would stack their lineups with lefties against Miller, and it was successful.

He understood that batters started to adjust against his fastball heavy approach, and he was determined to counter that. In an interview by Brandon Gustafson this past February, Miller expressed that he was raring to get to training during the offseason.

“I got up there and I threw pretty much all fastballs and wasn’t given up much hits, so I was like, ‘This is easier than I was expecting. All I gotta do is throw heaters down the middle and you can get through six innings’. But yeah, obviously that didn’t last. The league adjusts and I have to adjust with how they do. I think this offseason came at a good time.”

With a full offseason ahead of him, Miller did not waste any time.

The Splitter Chronicles

Winter of Splitter

Shortly after the MLB entered the offseason, Bryce Miller went right to work at Texas A&M, his alma mater, as part of his training regime. One of the most intriguing reports to come out of these training sessions was the news that Miller was adding a splitter into his arsenal. To keep fans updated, he chronicled his new splitter through videos on Twitter.

Following Miller’s splitter chronicles was a very fun activity, especially during a time when baseball discourse is at its lowest. His transparency was a breath of fresh air, and it generated excitement for the young righty.

Performing the Splits

A year later, and it is safe to say that adding the splitter was a huge success! In 2024, it returned a phenomenal +10 Run Value, which placed Miller in the 99th Percentile amongst all Off-Speed pitches.

A very fascinating aspect of Miller’s splitter is its extremely broad movement profile. He can sequentially throw a splitter with -10” of induced vertical break (iVB) and follow it up with one that has +10” iVB. The varying movement is a headache for batters to pick up on, but how Miller interacts his splitter with the rest of his arsenal, particularly his fastballs, is a massive reason for its success.

Just to show off how well Miller’s new splitter played off his 4-Seam and Sinker, let’s take a look at Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) overlays.

Miller masterfully tunnels his splitter with his fastballs, which makes it both a pleasure to watch and an extremely frustrating time for batters. His ability to vary the depth of the pitch is extremely valuable, as it helps him to deceive opponents.

Miller was no longer a 4-Seam machine. He redefined himself.

April Flowers, May Showers

Miller found great success with his new splitter, particularly early in the season. Through his first 6 starts, he tossed 35.1 IP while returning a 2.04 ERA and 3.82 FIP. His entire arsenal was excelling as he finished April with +8 Run Value, which ranked him 13th in MLB.

As the calendar flipped over to May, Miller hit a wall. He struggled to generate strikeouts, and his home run issues persisted. Batters started to adapt to Miller’s splitter, and it wasn’t generating as many whiffs as before. His splitter was becoming a less reliable put-away pitch with each passing start. This was apparent as Miller drastically dropped his 2-Strike Splitter usage in May, and further in June.

His splitter was still a very effective offering, returning +3 RV in May and June, but none of his other pitchers could fill the role as the primary put-away option. As a result, Miller followed up his great April with a poor May and June, where he posted a 4.94 ERA and 4.15 FIP in 62.0 IP. Similar to 2023, the majority of his struggles were against LHH. Without a reliable way to generate whiffs, Miller had to battle against opposing batters who hit a lot of balls into play. This led to a poor 5.93 FIP in 142 PA against LHH during the same timeframe.

Baseball is a game of ebbs and flows. Just like how Miller made adjustments in the off-season to have a step-up on the opposition, his opponents responded and effectively nullified his advantage. It was now up to Miller to turn the tides in his favour.

Just like any scientist would do, Miller went back to experimenting. He tested out a cutter in late May to help bridge his 4-Seam and Gyro-Slider, however it was not an effective at generating whiffs and graded out below average in tjStuff+ (97) due to its lack of glove-side movement. Miller continued to tinker with his arsenal, as he frequently changed up his pitch usage. Unfortunately, it was to no avail as he struggled with generating strikeouts.

Miller was thrown a curveball in his sophomore season. He needed a new put-away pitch.

Curve Your Enthusiasm

On June 29, 2024, Bryce Miller introduced a new pitch into his arsenal: A Knuckle-Curveball. Miller’s new curveball has important characteristics which makes it a perfect addition to his arsenal.

Sliding into a Death Ball

Firstly, Miller’s new curveball has a death ball shape. This means that the offering exhibits very little horizontal movement with moderate drop, thanks to its emphasis on gyro-spin rather than top-spin. Next, it plays off Miller’s slider extremely well. Miller’s curveball and slider have similar velocity and horizontal movement, however his curveball drops ~8” more than his slider. In an interview with Kate Preusser (@KatePreusser), Miller describes his curveball as:

“It’s similar to like a gyro slider, but with more depth”

For example, look at this sequence against Ben Rortverdt this season. Miller locates a slider low and inside, leading Rortverdt to foul the pitch off. On the next pitch, Miller locates his curveball in the same area, but it lands a few inches lower.

The pitches look almost identical out of hand, have the same velocity, and similar flight path. Rortverdt expected another slider in the same location, but thanks to the extra drop on the curveball, it resulted in a swinging strike.

Splitting the Whiffs

Miller knew exactly what he was doing when he introduced the curveball into his arsenal. He understood that batters were laying off his splitter and that he needed a new pitch which he could lean on while ahead in the count and to put-away batters.

“It’s more of like a finish-count, like if I threw two splitters in a row, instead of them being able to sit soft-away, being able to go hard-underneath. So we’ll see.”

This sequence leading to a strikeout against Brandon Lowe illustrates Miller’s thought process.

Miller tossed an 0-1 splitter down in the zone, which tailed off as it approached Lowe, who fouled off the pitch. On the subsequent pitch, Miller throws a curveball inside, which drops without any horizontal movement. Lowe took a mighty hack in the 0-2 count, but whiffed as he swung late and missed well over the pitch.

Dropping Off

Bryce Miller’s bread and butter is his buzzsaw 4-Seam Fastball, which consistently ranks amongst the best whiff-inducing fastballs in MLB. He is confident throwing the pitch in all counts, and consistently pounds the top of the zone with it.

A big issue with his fastball approach is that it makes him susceptible to hard-hit balls when he misses his spots. As we saw earlier, the splitter plays well off the fastball, but as batters adapted, its efficiency declined.

When working on his knuckle curveball, Bryce Miller wanted a pitch to specifically play off his fastball.

“I’m hoping it looks like a fastball, and then just drops”

Let’s see how this interaction worked out against NL MVP Finalist, Francisco Lindor.

Miller tossed an 0-1 Curveball which dropped below the zone for a ball. He followed it up with a mid 90s fastball in the heart of the zone, which made Lindor look foolish as he swung right through it. It was just like how Miller drew it up. His curveball looked like his fastball out of hand, but it suddenly dropped as it approaches the plate.

Curveball Complement

Miller’s goal with his curveball was to add in a whiff-inducing pitch which smoothly interacted with the rest of his arsenal, and he did just that. His curveball is primarily used against LHH while even or ahead in the count, and it returned a brilliant 43.8 Whiff% against them.

From June 29 onward, Miller made 15 starts, tossed 88.0 IP, and posted a 1.94 ERA and 2.96 FIP, which ranked him 4th and 8th respectively in MLB during that time frame amongst qualified pitchers. He was objectively one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. Importantly, Miller posted a 3.21 FIP against LHH during this time.

Surprisingly, Miller’s Knuckle Curve was his least effective pitch in that time span according to Baseball Savant Run Values, registering 0 RV. While Miller’s curveball was essentially a neutral pitch in terms of run value, it heightened the rest of his arsenal to another level.

Bryce Miller Arsenal June 29, 2024 Onward

It is important to note that Bryce Miller’s WORST pitch returned average results. He had 6 other pitches which were more effective than his knuckle curve after its introduction.

Thanks to how his knuckle curve played off his other pitches, Miller always had the upper hand on batters. His curveball looks like 3 different pitches at once, and I do not envy batters who had to distinguish between them.

Bryce Miller and the Seven Pitches

Bryce Miller was lauded for his 70-Grade Fastball as he made the jump to MLB during the 2023 Season. However, Miller’s reliance on his fastball quickly became a negative subject surronding his future as a starter.

Fast-forward a year, and now Bryce Miller’s arsenal features 7 pitches, all of which grade out well in pitch models, and returned positive results throughout the 2024 season. Miller evolved from essentially a 1-pitch pitcher to one of the most diverse pitchers in MLB.

As baseball research progresses, teams will continue to invest tremendous time and effort into a gaining an advantage over their opponents. It is up to the players to utilize the information provided by their team to transform their research into results.

Bryce Miller is a prime example of a pitcher trusting and making use of the information provided to him. His willingness to adapt is fascinating and he not afraid to adjust on the fly if he believes they will be beneficial to himself. Through his continuous experimentation, Miller reshaped himself into a dynamic pitcher with one of the deepest arsenals in baseball.