5 Hot Starts that Matter - Pitchers

Tylor Megill, Kris Bubic, MacKenzie Gore, Max Meyer, Landen Roupp

Apr 21, 2025

With the 2025 Season a few weeks in, let’s take a look at 5 starting pitchers that have started off strong and why their success could signal the best is yet to come!

Kris Bubic

This isn’t the first time, nor will it be the last, I have pumped up Kris Bubic’s tires this season. His transition to the starting rotation has been seamless, as he started off the season with a 1.88 ERA and 2.69 FIP across 24.0 Innings.

The most important element of Bubic’s game that I have focused on is the effectiveness of his fastball. Last season, it returned an elite 33.8 Z-Whiff%, which carried his dominance out of the bullpen. Through his first 4 starts, his fastball Z-Whiff% is up to 27.1%! Helping the offering reach its gaudy Whiff% is his command. The pitch lives high in the zone, which allows its immense ride (19.1” iVB) to cruise right over bats. The pitch is exhibiting more ride this season from a lower while maintaining its low 90s velocity, which has bumped up its tjStuff+ grade to 105.

Usage has also been a massive contributor to Bubic’s early success. Both his sweeper and slider have seen substantial increases in usage, with both becoming key weapons against LHH. Both offerings have returned positive run value thus far and have been effective while living in the zone.

While his fastball efficacy will likely dictate his floor, his changeup is integral to his long-term success as a starter. There have been some encouraging signs in the early going as it has returned strong results while improving its shape. He exclusively uses the offering against RHH and locates it low-and-away to generate some nasty swings.

Bubic’s ability to consistently and effectively locate all his offerings makes me optimistic that his hot start is not a facade. He has been able to maintain his velocity well and has maxed out at 95.3 MPH, which indicates that he can dial it up when needed. He was my favourite pitching target entering the season, and he kicked his season off on the right note.

MacKenzie Gore

MacKenzie Gore is off to a blazing start with a 37.8 K% across 29.0 innings while keeping his BB% at a minute 6.7 BB%. His fastball continues to grade out well according to tjStuff+, however it is a new pitch that sparked this dominance.

His “new” slider has given him a deadly weapon vs LHH, a subset of batters he has struggled against immensely in his career despite being a southpaw. After just a handful of sliders tossed in 2024, its usage has skyrocketed to 42.0%. He fills the outer third of the zone with the pitch, which has helped it return an elite 48.3 Whiff% and 34.8 O-Swing%. LHH have a ridiculous 46.9 K% against Gore this season.

The rest of Gore’s arsenal is status quo; the velocity and pitch shapes have carried over from 2024, with the biggest changes coming in the form of more selective usage. His curveball has all but disappeared vs LHH while being used almost exclusively as an ahead-in-the-count and put-away offering against RHH. His changeup and cutter round out his arsenal and, despite their excellent Whiff% thus far, have been sporadic in terms of locations.

Gore’s success against LHH was seemingly the last piece of the puzzle following his breakout 2024 campaign. His new slider and refined approach have Gore tearing through lineups to start the season, and there isn’t much indicating that he won’t continue racking up the strikeouts.

Max Meyer

After an injury-riddled pro career, Meyer seemed to be out of favour in Miami. He simply couldn’t stay healthy, and the results did not live up to his pedigree. He looked like a one-trick pony with his slider carrying the load, but a poor fastball weighing him down. The perspective of Meyer changed drastically this spring as he revamped his entire arsenal and started throwing harder than ever before. He effectively added 3 additional pitches while drastically improving his fastball and already great slider.

To kick off the season, Meyer has a 2.63 ERA and 20.4 K-BB% across 24.0 Innings. His slider remains the star of the show with a +5 run value. He has no issues locating it low in the zone to induce both whiffs and chases. Its tight bullet nature makes it a platoon-neutral option, and it has seen a considerable bump in tjStuff+ this season thanks to a +1.6 MPH increase in velocity.

The bump in velocity has pushed his 4-Seam fastball to an average offering. While it isn’t standout, he is doing something much more important to his fastball than throwing it harder; he is throwing it less. Its usage is down from 40% to 24% as he has filled in the gaps with his sinker and new sweeper. Both offerings are mainly used early and behind in counts vs RHH, with the sinker returning better results thus far.

Max Meyer is a prime example of why you shouldn’t give up on top prospects. Now in his first full MLB season, Meyer is primed to be a key piece of the Marlins young rotation. He has made all the changes you want to see from a budding arm and has orchestrated the start to his 2025 season very well.

Tylor Megill

Tylor Megill has always been known for his incredibly deep arsenal, which contains pitches such as his aptly named “American Fork.” Megill’s flexibility and feel for picking up new pitches have always intrigued me. Still, inconsistencies have kept his results from matching the intrigue.

Megill is off to a hot start with a 1.40 ERA and 2.19 FIP across 19.1 innings. You may be inclined to think that he added yet another pitch; however, his arsenal is smaller than ever before. In his current form, Megill is effectively a 3-pitch pitcher: a mid-90s rising fastball, a mid-80s tight two-plane slider, and a mid-90s running sinker. Typically, pitchers want to add in new pitches to their arsenal to address holes in their approach. Megill didn’t need to add any more pitches; he already threw 8 distinct offerings in 2024. The reason why shrinking Megill’s arsenal to 3 pitches works well is because they are his 3 best offerings, and he can mix and match them to handle both LHH and RHH. Against RHH, he goes heavy sinker and slider, and against LHH, he leans on his fastball.

Megill also has another weapon on his side: elite stuff. Each of his offerings grades out above average according to tjStuff+ with his fastball registering an elite 113 score. His combination of velocity, extension, and ability to impart movement on his pitches elevates their effectiveness. He has also exhibited solid command this season, and while the whiffs are slightly below average, he is generating plenty of chases.

This subdued version of Megill feels ideal. He is leaning on his best pitches and has refined them to make them better. The Mets pitching development team tends to get the best out of their arms, and Megill looks to be yet another example.

Landen Roupp

Landen Roupp’s 22.6 K-BB% provides you with most of the information required to understand that his pedestrian 4.09 ERA is much higher than it should be. Roupp earned a spot in the Giants rotation after a fantastic Spring, and he continued his success by striking batters out seemingly on command to start the 2025 season.

His arsenal primarily features a high 70s curveball and a low-to-mid 90s fastball, which both feature a ton of horizontal movement. His curveball is particularly disgusting; its combination of sweep and drop yields a favourable 106 tjStuff+ score, while his ability to paint the offering at the bottom of the zone produces a bunch of ugly swings, as indicated by its 42.2 O-Swing% and 55.4 Whiff%.

Roupp’s sinker is a groundball-inducing machine and complements his curveball with its mirrored movement. He works it high in the zone vs LHH and low in the zone vs RHH. It is unlikely that the sinker will generate many whiffs, but its damage-neutralizing ability gives him a dependable weapon in all counts, no matter the batter. He rounds out his arsenal with a changeup and a new cutter that gives him a few more weapons to unsheathe against RHH.

Roupp is following the Logan Webb blueprint to a tee, and it has produced strong results thus far. As long as his command holds up (which is more than likely), Roupp feels like a safe bet to not only stick in the Giants rotation but excel!

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