3 Under the Radar Starters to Watch
Ryan Gusto, Hunter Dobbins, Shane Smith
With the 2025 Season a few weeks in, let’s take a look at 3 starting pitchers that have the tools to breakout this season!
Ryan Gusto
Ryan Gusto is making the case for the best pitcher you’ve never heard of this season. The Astros are hurting for arms, so Gusto’s spot in the rotation is likely safe for at least another month, and he is making it difficult to remove from his current role. He currently holds a 2.78 ERA and 2.67 FIP across 22.2 IP with time spent both in the rotation and bullpen.
The key to Gusto’s production is his fastball. It sits in the mid 90s where it’s incredible ride and flat approach make it nightmare for batters. The offering currently holds a 30.9 Whiff% with an impressive 25.9 Z-Whiff%, making it one of the most effective fastballs in MLB.
In conjunction with is excellent shape is Gusto’s tendency to pound the top of the zone with the offering. He locates his fastball up and away to both RHH and LHH over 50% and is not afriad to throw it in any count. His fastball has the characteristics which allow to survive such high usage rates.
The rest of Gusto’s arsenal is features 5 distinct offerings which he mixes in depending on batter handedness. His sweeper and sinker are exclusively tossed against RHH, with both typically used early in counts. His curveball and changeup are his main secondaries against LHH, as the former is an early count strike stealer and the latter being a devasting put away offering. His most interesting pitch may be his cutter which sits in the high 80s with decent and above average glove-side action. The results have been quite poor, but he has exhibited a solid feel for the pitch.
Gusto has everything you want from a mid-rotation starter: A plus fastball, a bunch of secondaries, and average command. His hot start is not a facade, and he should be given plenty of more opportunities to prove his spot in the Astros rotation.
Hunter Dobbins
Yes, Hunter Dobbins in currently in AAA, however he is on the 40-Man roster and looks to be the next guy up in the Red Sox rotation with their current state of injuries. His results this season speak for themselves: a 23.4 K-BB% is strong and he has done an excellent job at inducing both chases and weak contact. When we dig deeper into Dobbin’s profile, it becomes clearer as to how he is achieving this success despite being overshadowed in Boston’s pipeline.
Dobbins has a very simple, yet effective approach. He pounds the zone with fastballs early and then wipes out batters with his wide array of secondaries and strong command. His fastball isn’t all to special. It sits in the mid 90s with average shape for his slot. I won’t expect it to generate many whiffs, but its ability to garner chases makes it an extremely effective weapon to get ahead in counts. He locates the offering on the outer third of the plate where its minimal horizontal action makes it work against both LHH and RHH.
Dobbins effectively turns into 2 different pitchers once he gets ahead in the count. He leans on his splitter and curveball against LHH while his approach vs RHH consists of his slider and sweeper. It’s pretty spectacular how precise he has been with each of these pitches this season. Just take a look at the locations!
Dobbins does not have a spot in the Red Sox rotation right now, but I can confidently say he is one of Boston’s best 5 SP. Whenever he gets his shot in MLB again, watch for him to excel. Strong secondaries and solid command are driving his profile, which makes him look the part of a stable backend starter.
Shane Smith
The #1 Pick in the Rule 5 Draft is off to a strong start to his career with a 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP across 22.1 IP. He is averaging 77 Pitches per game while being very efficient.
The biggest knock-on Smith is poor strikeout rate at just 16.7 K%, however there are signs that it should trend upwards. His 28.2 Whiff% is simply too high for his poor K% to sustain and he wields a deep arsenal with one of the nastiest changeups in baseball. The crux of his inability to put away batters’ stems from a very poor chase rate.
His fastball has returned solid results this season, mostly in part to his utilization of the pitch in all counts while constantly throwing it for strikes. His ability to generate in-zone whiffs with the offering complements its well above average 67.6 Zone% very well.
His poor O-Swing% woes are a tad perplexing. It is clear that he has the command to locate well, but his usage leads him into some pitfalls. Take his slider for example. He places it low and away vs RHH and tends to use it in all counts. The drawback of this is that he throws his slider frequently while behind in the count. He has above average Zone% on the offering, but batters remain patient and lay off his O-Zone pitches. This causes him to fall further behind in the count where his then uses his fastball to battle back. A change I would suggest is a slight usage tinkering once Smith falls behind in the count where he leans more on his fastball and sinker to even it up quickly and then use his secondaries to get ahead and put away batters.
The crown jewel of Smith’s arsenal is his kick changeup that sits in the low 90s with an incredible about of drop. He locates the offering well at the bottom of the zone without wasting too many pitches. Based on its characteristics and his seemingly good feel for the pitch, I expect its results, especially its O-Swing%, to improve.
It’s hard to ask for more from a Rule 5 Pick after such a solid start, but it really does feel like there is another level for Shane Smith to reach. The foundation is intriguing and he has maintained velocity well throughout his starts. The White Sox are fully dedicated to keep him as a starter, and I believe he has all the tools to succeed.
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