3 More Under the Radar Starters to Watch

Gunnar Hoglund, David Festa, Logan Henderson

See Also: 3 Under the Radar Starters to Watch

With the 2025 Season a few weeks in, let’s take a look at 3 more starting pitchers that have the tools to breakout this season!

Gunnar Hoglund

It’s been quite a journey for Hoglund throughout his pro career. He was selected in the 1st round of the 2021 draft by the Blue Jays and was traded to the Athletics before his MiLB debut as part of the Matt Chapman deal. Merely a few weeks into 2022 he tore is UCL and required Tommy John Surgery, which sent him to the injured list until the 2nd half of 2023. Upon his return, Hoglund was rather shaky as he struggled to generate whiffs and allowed his fair share of HR. He started to catch his grove in 2024 at AA, but the stuff just wasn’t reminiscent of his impressive arsenal that warranted a #1 draft selection.

It wasn’t until this past Spring where we finally saw Hoglund shine like the top prospect he was expected to be. His velocity was up a few ticks across the board and his pitches were revamped to the point where it was essentially new. His strong Spring propelled him to #48 on my Top 50 Pitching Prospects rankings where I excitedly highlighted how his innate command would greatly complement his arsenal improvements and “could make him an effective mid-rotation starter sooner rather than later”.

It wasn’t long into the 2025 MLB season before we got a glimpse of Hoglund as he debuted on May 2 against the Malins. He made a statement as he tossed 6.0 IP with 1 ER and 7 K. On top of it, he issued 0 BB as he his aforementioned solid command was on point. He showed off everything that caught scouts’ eyes this Spring and quickly proved that he has the stuff to stick in the Majors.

His fastball looked phenomenal throughout his start. He pounded the zone relentlessly in all counts where its high riding action and pinpoint locations easily packed away Miami batters. Against LHH he opted to locate it high in the zone while he was rather automatic in locating it on the outer third against RHH. He did allow a HR on the offering, but it was on an up and away fastball that Dane Myers somehow launched the other way.

His sinker was located beautifully as it lived on the inner third to RHH. His feel and command of the offering looked like a seasoned veteran. It’s above average arm-side run and sinking action plays incredibly well in on the hands of RHH and should lead to plenty of weakly hit grounders.

My favourite pitch of Hoglund’s is his changeup. It sits in the mid 80s with over 16” of vertical separation from his fastball. It also exhibits over 16” of arm-side run which causes it to run away from LHH as he paints it in the bottom of the zone. It grades out at an incredible 111 tjStuff+ plus, making it one of the highest-ranking changeups in MLB. Here is an overlay of his fastball and changeup which shows the separation he generates.

Hoglund rounds out his arsenal with a slider (it’s more of a cutter) which sits in the low 90s and exhibits similar ride to his fastball but with minimal horizontal action. He uses it exclusively against LHH, typically early in counts, and locates it on the inner third to pick up called strikes and induce weak swings.

Hoglund’s debut encapsulated what made him such an intriguing pitching prospect this past Spring and it demonstrated how he can succeed in the Majors. The stuff looked excellent and he backed it up with above average command. That is a recipe for success!

David Festa

I have been ringing the David Festa bell for over a year now and the results in his handful of MLB starts this season have been very encouraging. He owns a 1.38 ERA and 2.36 FIP across 13.0 IP while filling the zone and running a strong 17.9 K-BB%.

Festa always intrigued me because of his classic 3-pitch mix: fastball, slider, and changeup. Each offering flashed plus characteristics throughout his MiLB career and give him the necessary foundation to tackle any batter in the league. He uses each of his pitches against all handedness of batters, but he typically approaches LHH with fastballs and changeup while he exchanges those changeups for sliders vs RHH. While this mix is effective, Festa typically found himself struggling to mitigate hard contact against righties. To counter this issue, Festa added in a sinker to his arsenal, and it had led to some very encouraging early results.

His fastball is of the cut-ride variety and sits in the mid-90s with +19” iVB from a higher 3/4 slot. His elite extension (7.0 ft) leads to a lower release point which helps his fastball’s elite ride play up. His slider has tight gyro action (minimal movement due to spin) and sits in the high 80s. He typically uses it ahead in the count to RHH and locates it low and away. His changeup is my favourite of his pitches, sitting in the high 80s with over 10” of vertical and horizontal separation from his fastball. Its tumbling action plays exceptionally well in the bottom of the zone.

Festa is sometimes inefficient with his approach as he wastes far too many fastballs trying to generate chases. This typically leads to Festa squandering his advantage and working deeper into counts. Given his natural command and high-powered arsenal, I expect his inefficiency to improve as he gains more reps in the Majors. He has all the tools to be an effective MLB starter right now, and he has already proven he belongs!

Logan Henderson

Logan Henderson has been a prospect darling of mine dating since last season where he stormed through the Brewers minor league system before making his AAA debut in the 2nd half. Henderson, like Hoglund, had an electric start to his MLB career in which he tossed a quality start and tacked up 9 K against the Athletics. What made Henderson’s start so fascinating was his pitch usage. Throughout his pro-career, Henderson leaned on a dynamic fastball and changeup combo which returned excellent results at all levels. In his MLB debut, he stuck with that approach to a tee as all but 6 pitches were either a fastball or a changeup.

So, what makes his fastball and changeup effective despite the below average velocity? Deception. Henderson doesn’t have the power to hit even 95 MPH, but what he does possess is the ability to impart a ton of spin on his pitches and generate some outlier movement.

Take his fastball for example. Sitting 91-93 MPH, you might expect Henderson’s fastball to be just a decent offering, especially from a righty. However, Henderson leverages his ability to generate ride (iVB) on the pitch from his extremely low release point (5.2 ft) while locating it high in the zone to produce one of the flattest fastballs in the majors. With its -4.1° VAA, Henderson’s fastball sits in the 88th percentile in “flatness”. This aspect of a fastball is desirable because it differs from a batter’s expectation compared to a pitch that would cross the plate with a steeper approach. This is why we see pitchers like Bryan Woo and Kris Bubic succeed with fastballs that don’t exhibit high-end velocity.

Henderson’s changeup sits in a different bucket where its movement sits alone in MLB. No other pitcher has a similar release point, arm angle, and shape on their changeup which benefits Henderson because of its rarity. This same phenomenon was witnessed last season when Drew Thorpe took the league by storm with his elite changeup. Being a unique pitcher is a huge advantage, especially in an environment many arms are developed using templates. Henderson’s changeup sits in the low 80s with over 18” of run and more than 1’ of vertical separation from his fastball.

Henderson is one of the the better SP on the Brewers 40-Man roster and deserves to be provided another chance to stick in the rotation.

---

---

Follow me on Twitter: @TJStats

Follow me on BlueSky: @tjstats.ca

Consider Supporting me on Patreon: TJStats