10 Bold Predictions for the 2025 MLB Season

How bold can I go?

Introduction

When I make bold predictions, I want to make sure that they are actually BOLD. My goal with this exercise is to highlight players and teams that I think can do the improbable.

This means that I will present a scenario that feels nearly impossible, but there is a sliver of belief that I think it could possibly come true. Due to the unlikely nature of these predictions, I don’t expect any of them to hit. What I do expect, though, is that at least a handful come close.

Last season I had 1 prediction come to fruition. This was “The Detroit Tigers have a top 5 team ERA in MLB.” This prediction came after a 2023 season where the Tigers finished 17th in team ERA. Their strong spring training performance drove me to make this prediction, and it felt awesome when I hit the nail on the head as the Tigers finished 4th in MLB.

With that out of the way, let’s get to the 2025 Bold Predictions!

Bold Predictions

1) Paul Skenes wins NL MVP

We got a taste of Paul Skenes in his phenomenal rookie season, and it feels like there is another level to his game. He is projected to be the most valuable pitcher in baseball, but the reason why his prediction is bold is that it has been over a decade since the last pitcher (2014 Clayton Kershaw) won an MVP Award. That season, Kershaw was so utterly dominant that he handily won the award. Kershaw was nearly unbeatable, and Skenes has that same killer instinct that can propel him into MVP consideration.

Skenes will be up against an absolute gauntlet of superstars in the NL with names like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Elly De La Cruz each battling for the crown. It will take a historic season for a pitcher to win the award, and Skenes has just the tools to succeed.

2) Riley Greene wins AL MVP

Riley Greene really came into his own last season after a handful of injury-shortened seasons to start his career. The former #1 overall prospect exhibited elite batted ball metrics while playing formidable defence in LF for the Tigers. He was an important piece of their playoff run and their most valuable batter with 4.0 fWAR.

Greene enters 2025 in his age 24 season with a full toolbox to be an MVP candidate. He will have a tough task competing with some of the best players in baseball, and I believe he can be right up there with them.

3) Matt Wallner leads MLB in Home Runs

Matt Wallner is a prototypical slugger. He wields immense raw power and the innate ability to pull fly balls, but he has some of the worst contact metrics in the league. While that may spell trouble for his future in MLB, Wallner supplements his extreme boom/bust profile with a strong approach. He is selectively aggressive, which allows him to run above-average BB% and punish in-zone pitches. This combination of elite power and selective eye is akin to Kyle Schwarber, and to further aid the comparison, Wallner is expected to be the Twins leadoff hitter this season.

Assuming Wallner can sustain strong offensive production, which seems likely (career 144 wRC+), he should have plenty of opportunities to hit HR at the top of the Twins lineup in a LHH-friendly park.

4) Jonathan India leads MLB in runs

India has an elite eye and knack for making contact, which should flourish in his new home park of Kauffman Stadium. The expansive outfield in Kansas City plays perfectly to his spray tendencies and lines him up for a ton of opportunities to get on base. Once he reaches, he has the trio of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez to drive him home.

India would need to score well over his career high of 98 runs to have this bold prediction come true, but I think he can do it. He has the skill set of a leadoff hitter with a strong supporting cast in one of the best hitting parks in baseball.

5) Bryce Miller wins AL Cy Young Award

Bryce Miller is an absolute grinder and refines his craft to get any edge on his opponents. Last season he expanded his arsenal, which both showcases his drive to improve and his ability to adapt. We’ve seen Miller struggle, but the way he bounces back is what makes him an AL Cy Young contender. He adds in new pitches on a whim and leverages his plus command to stump batters.

Miller was excellent in 2024, posting a 2.94 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 180.1 IP, but he failed to receive a single AL Cy Young vote. I still think this was a big miss by the voters, but their thoughtless lack of recognition allows me to make this bold prediction!

6) Jack Leiter wins AL Rookie of the Year

Jack Leiter had a rough debut in the Majors last season as he got knocked around. This spring he came back with a vengeance with 2 new pitches and an opportunity to crack the 26-man roster. He did not squander his chance after a strong showing (and timely injuries) helped Leiter securely slot into the Rangers rotation. His new sinker and kick changeup have looked incredible this spring and complement his already electric fastball and slider combo.

Leiter has the opportunity to stick in MLB for the whole season and the stuff to turn heads.

7) The New York Mets have a Top 5 Team ERA in MLB

The New York Mets finished the 2024 season with a decidedly average pitching staff. They registered a 100 ERA+ with a 3.96 ERA on the season with both their rotation and bullpen returning very similar results. Over the winter, they made a handful of moves to deepen their pitching staff, with the most notable additions being Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, Griffin Canning, and AJ Minter. While neither of those arms is elite, they provide the Mets with the depth required to navigate their upcoming 162-game slate.

The Mets are a savvy team with a smart pitching development team that tends to get the best out of their arms. We saw the resurgence of Sean Manaea and Luis Severino last season, and I am confident that they can help their medley of pitchers return strong seasons.

8) Kris Bubic has the lowest ERA of any Royals pitcher

Bubic is making his return to starting this spring after a dominant showing from the Royals bullpen last season. Transitioning to starting isn’t for everyone (e.g., AJ Puk, DL Hall), but I believe Bubic has all the tools to be an effective SP right away. He has a 5-pitch mix highlighted by an elite fastball and killer changeup, which gives the lefty an excellent foundation to build upon.

To have this prediction come true, Bubic would need to outperform a pair of Top 4 2024 Cy Young Award vote getters while also pitching enough innings as a SP (Let’s say +120 IP) to make this a fair comparison. It’s a long shot, but it could happen!

9) Orion Kerkering leads MLB in saves

Orion Kerkering is one of the best relievers in baseball thanks to his incredible sweeper and high 90s fastballs, which flummox batters. Last season he pitched to the tune of a 2.29 ERA and 2.42 FIP across 63.0 IP as a rookie to put up one of the most valuable RP seasons in the league. With Jeff Hoffman gone and Kerkering’s biggest competition being the oft-injured Jordan Romano, Kerkering has the chance to snag the closer role in Philadelphia and not relinquish it.

Kerkering has the tools and instinct to be a shutdown closer on one of the best teams in the league. If he gets a shot, he will rack up a ton of saves.

10) Boston Red Sox defeat the New York Mets in the World Series

I like to end this series with a World Series prediction.

The Red Sox young core and bolstered pitching staff, led by Garrett Crochet, will fight through the AL East gauntlet before clinching a playoff berth. Simultaneously, the Mets will jockey for and eventually win the NL East Division Title after a close race with the Phillies and Braves. Both the Red Sox and Mets will battle through their respective league’s brackets before meeting each other in the Fall Classic, where the Red Sox win their 10th World Series title.

Newest Red Sox Alex Bregman wins the World Series MVP after a dominant series.

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