Prospect Parade: Florida State League Opening Week
Andrew Painter, Khal Stephen, Liomar Martinez, Will Watson
Welcome to “Prospect Parade”, a series which aims to highlight intriguing MiLB players and performances. I will mainly focus on current prospects, but from time to time I will highlight recently graduated ones.
This article will cover intriguing Lo-A (Florida State League) performances from opening week! I highlighted the FSL because that is the only Lo-A league with Statcast.
For Lo-A Pitch Data, check out this App I made!
Khal Stephen - TOR
Khal Stephen was selected in the 2nd round of the 2024 MLB Draft by Toronto and has looked excellent to start his pro career. He wields a 4-pitch mix highlighted by a high riding low-to-mid 90s fastball and a changeup that exhibits a ton of depth. His fastball has averaged 20” iVB while living at the top of the zone. The flatter angle on the offering (-4.4° VAA) allows it to stay above bats as it passes through the zone. The iVB is likely inflated due to the MiLB ball, but even with a slight drop in that department his fastball should still grade out as an above average offering with some assistance from his elite extension (7’).
His changeup is the crown of his arsenal. It sits in the mid 80s with slight arm-side action and over 16” iVB separation from his fastball. He uses it exclusively to LHH and has displayed a tendency for keeping it low in the zone. The way the pitch plays off his fastball is jarring for batters and leads to some very uncomfortable swings. His breaking balls are typically thrown against RHH with his curveball being an early count offering and his slider used while ahead. Both pitch grade out about average on a tjStuff+ scale.
Stephen projects to have average command which buoys his floor to a 4/5 SP with a true starter’s arsenal. He has the tools and physicality that make me comfortable calling him a backend Top 100 prospect right now! He should make his way to Hi-A shortly.
Liomar Martinez - MIA
Liomar Martinez is making a joke out of the Florida State league with a laughable 63.0 K% to start the season. The Marlins young righty is devoid from all prospect lists, and I know that will change quickly. When I tell you this guy caught my eye, I mean it. As a 19-year-old he wields nasty curveball and fastball combo while weaving in a promising changeup. He averaged 6.6’ of extension which helps him get down the mound and release from a lower release point. This aspect of his delivery helps the 17” iVB on his fastball create a very flat plane to the plate (-3.9° VAA) and be a nightmare for batters when it is located at the top of the zone. Now that is where the biggest hinderance to Martinez’s profile comes in; his command.
When you are registering a 37.5 Chase% and 50.0 Whiff% overall, it doesn’t really matter where you’re throwing it, but Martinez’s poor 37.9 Zone% needs to improve. He is simply wasting too many pitches, which is likely a result of his inconsistent release mechanics.
Now back to his fastball. The offering is averaging 93.7 MPH; a 3 MPH jump from 2024. This growth from a teenager isn’t unprecedented, but it really shows that this version of Martinez’s is truly upgraded. His curveball mirrors his fastball with 15” of sweep and -11” iVB. It sits in the high 70s and has returned comical 66.7 Whiff% thus far. His changeup is clearly a work in progress both in terms of shape and feel, so it is encouraging to see him testing it out in game. The next logical addition to his arsenal would be either a gyro slider or cutter that will help tie everything together and make his curveball less telegraphed.
At just 19 years old, Martinez is flashing some great stuff with the frame to back it up. Cleaning up his command would do wonders for his stock and I am looking forward to more crooked numbers this season.
Will Watson - NYM
Will Watson was selected in the 7th round of the 2024 Draft and he is already looking like a win for the Mets. He wields a duo of fastballs that each exhibit intriguing characteristics and he supplements them with a changeup and slider. His fastball is his strongest pitch, sitting in the mid-90s with well above average ride for his slot. The offering averages 94.7 MPH with 18” iVB from a 5.3 ft release which helps it grade out as a plus offering. His cutter looks promising, sitting in 89-91 MPH with minimal arm-side action and 8-10” iVB. Along with his slider, it should make up most of his usage against RHH. His changeup is the last piece of the puzzle and its immense arm-side run and vertical separation from his fastball helps push it towards average.
Similar to Khal Stephen, Watson has a 4-pitch mix that should excel in the lower minors. He could be a fast mover in the Mets system with his fastball carrying the bulk of the load.
Andrew Painter - PHI
Andrew Painter made his return to Lo-A after graduating from the level in 2022 as part of his rehab assignment. It was his fist MiLB start since September 2022 and it looked like he didn’t miss a beat!
He showed off exactly why he is considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. His fastball sat in the high 90s and topped out at 100.2 MPH. This was notable because he failed to reach triple digits in the Arizona Fall League. The pitch had incredible ride with +19” iVB and slight cutting action, helping it grade out at a staggering 115 tjStuff+. His slider also looked great thanks to its great sweeping action. He rounded off the day with a cutter that flashed plus-plus characteristics with its low 90s velocity and ideal combination of ride and cut. Painter didn’t show off his full arsenal in his first rehab outing as both his curveball and changeup were each tossed just 1 time. Getting the feel for the changeup will be key as he makes his way back from Tommy John Surgery as it would give him an effective weapon to naturalize LHH.
Painter had a loud start to the 2025 season. We likely won’t see him in MLB until the summer, but we have a lot to look forward to in the meantime. He is absolutely electric!
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